Aurora for Carmel, IN
No aurora expected in Carmel tonight
Kp threshold for Carmel: ~8. Tonight's forecast peak: 3.3.
Storm strengthKp 3.3 — Unsettled
Kp is a 0–9 scale of geomagnetic storm strength — the higher it is, the farther south the aurora reaches. What matters is geomagnetic latitude, not the latitude on a map: Carmel sits at 49.0° geomagnetic (vs 40.0°N on the map), which needs about Kp 8.
Aurora reaches64°N (you: 40.0°N)
The southern edge of where the aurora is overhead tonight. You can sometimes catch it low on the northern horizon a few degrees farther south.
- Cloud cover1%
- Moon52% brightness
- Dark sky starts8:32 PM
Data as of Oct 18, 2026
Coming Up
Seeing the northern lights from Carmel, IN
The number that decides whether Carmel sees an aurora is not the latitude on a map. The auroral oval is centred on the geomagnetic pole, which sits over Arctic Canada near 80.7°N, 72.7°W — well off the geographic pole. Carmel sits at 40.0°N on a map but about 49.0° geomagnetic, roughly 9.0° closer to the aurora than the map suggests.
That offset is why two cities on the same parallel can have very different odds. Portland, Maine and Boise, Idaho are both near 43.6°N, but Portland sits about 3° higher in geomagnetic latitude — close to a full Kp step — so the same storm that puts a glow on Portland's horizon can leave Boise with nothing.
For Carmel the practical threshold is about Kp 8, which happens once or twice a year at best. At that strength expect a low glow along the northern horizon — often easier for a camera than the eye. Stronger storms push the oval further south and lift the display higher up the sky.
When a storm is in range, find a spot with a clear, dark view of the northern horizon, away from city lights, after evening twilight ends. A bright moon or clouds will wash out a faint display, so the best nights pair a strong storm with clear, dark skies.